Functional Approaches to Ecological Forecasting

(Photo from UNC at Chapel Hill bio of Lauren B. Buckley)

Dr. Lauren Buckley  

One week ago, I was fortunate enough to be presented the opportunity to attend a lecture given by Dr. Lauren Buckley of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill. Dr. Buckley's lecture was entitled "Functional Approaches to Ecological Forecasting," and, initially, I was entirely lost on what the subject matter was. "Ecological Forecasting?" I had no clue what that could mean. And, indeed, as the lecture began, it certainly appeared to be intended for a higher base of knowledge than that which I possessed.

However, I did catch on after a few moments (and I'm very glad I was able to.) Buckley was, in essence, examining the potential for certain species (examined through morphology, physiology, and life history) to adapt to changes in their environment. She did this through creating models ("Mechanistic Range Models:" starting with info on environment/individuals and extrapolating to populations to create population dynamic model) which considered a multitude of factors which could affect a species' range of habitat, or Climatic Envelope. 

Her research focused on butterflies and several species of lizards mostly spread across North America, and her findings indicated facets of species adaptation not initially expected. She found that biology does affect an organism's response to environmental factors in populations. In a simple example, if a population is comfortable in a seventy degrees Fahrenheit and the that area shifts to a temperature of 75 degrees fahrenheit, the species will likely shift the location of their range of habitat. Buckley's models displayed the effects of this in a far more sophisticated manner which include various other factors, and she found that, in the event of climate change, most species' ranges will travel northward toward more desirable conditions. Also, for the examined species of butterflies, flight time will increase which will lead to a higher amount of eggs being created, but, in higher temperatures, the survival of each egg will be less likely. Her data displayed that each species has adapted individually, and that every species is particularly specialized for their current environment as a result of, in most cases, millennia of adaptation. In the face of looming climate change, many species who have adapted to their specific environment will be displaced by the future nonexistence of their current habitat. This will have multifarious effects on every species, and will quite likely lead to the extinction of many species as they either are left with no habitat at all or cannot survive in their new habitual range.